Vn-Index fluctuates sharply due to VIC BVH, huge transaction in MBB, DHG - A stock each day


- Vn-Index fluctuates sharply: traded sideway in early morning, reduced sharply after, but 10 minutes before ATC session, huge buying orders boost VIC from 4.4% reduction to reference price, and BVH from reference price to ceilling price.
- MBB traded value is 4.5 times higher than 20-day average, contributing 93% to higher today traded value.
- Liquidity increased significantly: 13% higher than 20-day average, and 14% higher than last trading day.
- Foreigners net buy, mostly on VNM (126 bill), but they also sell much on HPG (78 bill), VIC (60 bill).


- USD will depreciate in 2019 due to US lower GDP growth and FED stopping rate hike.
- China PMI in Nov 2018 was worsen to 50 point (lowest in a year), marking divide between expansion and contraction.
- Goldman Sachs: It's most likely that trade war will escalate after Trump-Xi dinner in G20.

- Mr. Tran Bac Ha (Ex-Chairman of BIDV), and Mr. Tran Luc Lang (BIDV Deputy CEO) were arrested due to violation of regulation on banking activities. 


Business model:
- DHG is leader in Vietnamese pharmaceutical industry, of which pharmaceuticals, functional foods account for 82% and 9% revenue.
- Like other companies in the industry, DHG’s products are generic meaning that time period for patent protection is expired. So, products have same ingredients and formulas as other competitors’ and must face with high competition situation of the industry.
- DHG mainly distributes through OTC channel (including agents, private pharmacies, hospital pharmacies, self-distribution companies, supermarkets, retail stores ...). Accordingly, DHG owns a nationwide distribution network,: 32% in the North, 17% in the Central, 11% in the East, 8% in HCMC, and 32% in the Mekong Delta. 
- DHG owns 2 plants in Can Tho and Hau Giang of which Hau Giang factory will enjoy incentive corporate tax rate of 0% until 2018 end, and will be subject to 5% tax in 2019.
- SCIC and Taisho are 2 biggest shareholders, owning ~78% shares, FOL now is 100%, and foreigners currently own ~49%.

Investment catalysts:
- Main driver for DHG is industry volume growth ~8.5%/year as 1) pharmaceutical industry is defensive and less affected by business cycle, and 2) drug consumption per capita in VN  remains very low compared with other countries. 
- Strategic shareholder - Taisho (Japan's leading drug distributor) is expected to help DHG to improve technology transfer, research and development, export markets, and supply chain management, so increasing profit margin.
- However, corporate income tax will increase from 0% to 5% in 2019, reducing net profit.

Financial Statement Analysis:
Excellent financial position due to high cash balance at ~1.5K bill (equal 38% total assets), low borrowing balance ~600 bill, and high positive cash flow from operation in all years.